Market Update. What Happened to the Market

Dear clients and friends,

The last few weeks have been crazy to say the least.  Captain obvious here.  I wanted to take a moment and share some thoughts with you. It has been a challenging time to decipher what is happening in the market and in a new world of “social distancing”, schools closing out of precaution, travel restrictions and concerns on the scale of spread and potential financial impact of the coronavirus.

What Happened to the Market

The markets heading into 2020 had been on an overall 11 year bull run and was starting to look for a sell-off correction to slow things down and pause a highly priced market.  Coronavirus was the “trigger” the market was looking for to start a sell off and pull back prices.

 Monday, March 9th the S&P 500 finished the day down 7.7%.  In my opinion, this was likely the “capitulation sell off” that was based somewhat on market fundamentals.  However, since the 9th, the market has been mostly if not entirely based on fear and any focus on fundamentals has been absent.  Fear is a scary emotion because it can take over logic and cause the most educated of us to panic.  There is much commentary out there from the health community, NIH and CDC about the prevention actions taking place.  The U.S. is seeking to be proactive, get ahead of community virus spread and flatten out the rate curve of infection.  I will let the medical community give perspective on that.  It is a very fluid situation.

 The same trigger of the initial sell off, the coronavirus, is now also the reason for uncertainty we see driving extreme volatility of huge swings in the stock market.  What a ride.  These next few weeks will likely have more volatility.

Let’s review the last weeks roller coaster: Monday, March 9th -7.7%, Tuesday +4.89%, Wednesday -5.8%, Thursday -9.99% and Friday +9.36%... ending the week -10.36%.

Some truths about the stock market

• We have seen extreme volatility.

• Fundamentals have not been involved in the last week or so. It is largely pure panic; selling all stocks and even bonds without regard.

• Volatility will probably remain high for period.  Since 2008, when we have seen increased volatility, the market has moved fast on the downside but also often quick on the rebound, upside.

• This decline is different from the 2008 recession, the most recent dramatic sell off.  In 2008, the financial system, the banking backbone of the global economy was on the brink of collapse from overleverage and bad loans.  Today, the financial system is in a much stronger position and is healthy.

• Another truth about the market is that it hates uncertainty.

It is likely that the economy will slow during this period and companies’ sales, earnings will be down.  This is known.  What is unknown is how long this slower period will last.  One good thing is that it is known, as to why U.S. companies’ revenue will be down.  It is explainable and not because all these businesses are poorly run or have bad goods or services.  This is a slowdown because business has not been conducted as usual for a period- more employees working remotely, travel has been stopped to see customers/close deals and some companies are waiting logistically for parts from a manufacturing partner in China or another part of the world.

• Once these slowdowns are behind, some of the market will likely bounce back quickly.  The U.S. economy, especially the business segment will adapt quickly and adjust to be productive and profitable.

How to think about this

• Stay calm.  You don’t need 6 months of toilet paper or think you should sell your investments and move to cash

• As your advisors, we are being proactive and available to discuss your concerns.

• Trust the allocation of your investments.  On a roller coaster, would you try to exit or jump off at any point in the ride?

• Trust your financial plan.  Your plan helps lay out what each account you have is for and has a timeline for specific goals and upcoming expenses.

• Consider a rebalance of your accounts.  As markets move, and with stocks declining lately, the allocation of a portfolio can get out of line with your appropriate risk target.  A rebalance can allow an investor to purchase stock shares at a discounted price when stock markets have declined.

• Consider investing cash with a long term timeframe.

• Evaluate if a refinance of your mortgage may be viable.  30 yr and 15 yr rates have come down to record low with the US 10 year bond being under 1%.  Contact a mortgage broker to shop around for your specific situation.**

If you have questions, please ask us.  Please know we care and are being proactive and involved as much as we can.

We are available, especially in times like this.

Luke and Kevin

**Raymond James Financial Services and your Raymond James Financial Advisors do not solicit or offer residential mortgage products and are unable to accept any residential mortgage loan applications or to offer negotiate terms of any such loan.  You will be referred to a qualified Raymond James Bank employee for your residential mortgage lending needs.

 This is not a replacement for the official customer account statements or trade confirmations from Raymond James or other custodians.  Activity details including time and price will be included in the official statements and confirmations.

 The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete.  Any opinions are those of Foley & Fields Wealth Strategies and not necessarily those of Raymond James.  Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice.  There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.  Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected.  Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance.  Individual investor’s results will vary.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions.  Rebalancing a non-retirement account could be a taxable event that may increase your tax liability.  The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market.

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The Vote Against...Elections and your Portfolio

Elections have a way of revealing the true state of American politics.  I think many have known it was in a sad, poor state but we didn’t have a concrete point in time to say, yep this is really bad.  Until now.   Currently, we find ourselves asking, “are these the best candidates we can offer?”

It is the first election when more than 50% of voters are voting “against the other candidate” rather than for the one they will actually “pull the lever” (Pew Research).

How Elections Impact the Stock Market

In looking at history here is what we know.

Volatility in the stock market always increases heading into and exiting a presidential election.  We know that the stock market hates uncertainty, and uncertainty is exactly what you get in a polarizing election that has very different candidate policies.  Volatility is normal in the stock market but is heightened when emotions, worry and policy concerns influence trading.  While it is normal to be concerned, it is not wise to make drastic changes to your financial plan.

12 months after an Election the markets are usually not impacted.  There is an old saying that “the market always climbs a wall of worry”.  Although there are no guarantees longer term, it is impressive looking at this chart of the many various worries and concerns that the market has climbed.

The market likes political “grid-lock”, and it is likely to be so after this election.
“Grid-lock” between the Executive and Legislative offices- Congress/House provides some certainty on likely policies and helps prevent dramatic policy swings.  Large policy shifts or swings would occur without grid-lock, actually causing more uncertainty in that current political cycle and then also in the following election cycle as the Pendulum historically looks to sweep to the opposite side of the spectrum.

Business and citizen spending has the greatest impact on the economy. 
In the United States, 82.4% of GDP comes from sources other than the government.  The president doesn’t have to be popular or have a high approval rating for a healthy stock market.  Historically, the market has performed well when approval is in the 35-50% range.

Making a move to Cash is “Timing the Market”.  Study after study has shown that trying to time the market is a futile exercise and missing just a few of the best days in the market can dramatically impact your long term returns.  Refer to the chart above where the market climbs a wall of worry and this one below.

A long term financial plan is your best bet.
Whether it is worry over an election causing increased market swings or clear goals you want to accomplish financially… either way it is best to stick to your financial plan.  Focus on the things you can control inside of your plan such as your goals you have set for yourself, your personal spending, how much you regularly save and the risk you are comfortable with in your portfolio.

To the Freedom to Vote For…or Against,

Luke Fields, CFP®

Any opinions are those of Luke Fields and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Every investor’s situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. There is no guarantee that any statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.